Roma vs AC Milan predictions: Rossoneri overpriced to overturn deficit

Aaron Ashley

Spotlight

Stefano Pioli's AC Milan have a good recent record against Roma despite last week's first-leg defeat

- AC Milan have lost only one of their last 10 meetings with Roma
- The Rossoneri have lost only one and won seven of their last 10 matches
- Recommended bet: AC Milan to qualify

It is advantage Roma in this all-Italian Europa League quarter-final following their hard-fought 1-0 victory at the San Siro last Thursday, but write off AC Milan at your peril

Gianluca Mancini's first-half header is the only thing that separates the sides and Roma have certainly improved since replacing Jose Mourinho with Daniele De Rossi as manager, losing only twice in his 16 outings.

However, Milan will feel they are still in the tie despite losing at home as they sit second in Serie A, 14 points above fifth-placed Roma, and they have completed a league double over the Wolves this season.

Having also won the shot count 25-10 in last week’s encounter and picked up positive results away at Dortmund and Newcasle in the Champions League group stages, there is the sense that there is still very much everything to play for.

Team news

Roma are without Ivorian defender Evan Ndicka and Iranian forward Sardar Azmoun, while midfielder Bryan Cristante is suspended after picking up a yellow card in the opening leg.

De Rossi rested Paulo Dybala, Gianluca Mancini and Lorenzo Pellegrini for the trip to Udinese, so that trio should be fit and raring to go.

For Milan, Pierre Kalulu, Simon Kjaer, Tommaso Pobega and Antonio Mirante are all missing through injury, but influential defender Fikayo Tomori returns from suspension.

The latest Roma vs AC Milan odds are available on LiveScore Bet

The stats

Roma were 1-0 winners in the opening leg at the San Siro but that is their only success in their last 10 competitive meetings with Milan.

That was Milan’s only defeat in their last 10 matches in all competitions and they have won seven of those fixtures.

Roma have lost only one of their last 20 home matches in all competitions.

There have been one or fewer goals in each of Roma’s last five matches.

Both teams have scored in eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams.

The net has bulged at both ends in eight of Milan’s last nine away outings.

Daniele De Rossi has turned Roma's fortunes around this season

Prediction

Roma are in the driving seat on the back of their 1-0 win in Milan and plenty will be siding with them to get the job done at fortress Stadio Olimpico, where they have lost only twice in 22 matches this season.

However, one of those defeats was against Milan and the Rossoneri will believe they can repeat the trick, especially given the number of chances that were created in that disappointing first-leg loss at the San Siro.

Stefano Pioli’s side had 25 shots, 15 more than Roma managed, but were wasteful and that is something they cannot afford to do in the Italian capital.

But Milan are the second best travellers in Serie A this season, losing only three of their 17 trips, and they have shown their big-game mentality on a number of occasions.

In the Champions League group stage, the Rossoneri drew 0-0 at Borussia Dortmund, who are now in the semi-finals of Europe’s elite competition, while they also recorded a 2-1 victory on their visit to Newcastle.

So in what promises to be another tense occasion, it could be unruly to write off Milan, who have completed a league double over Roma this season and are faring considerably better in the Italian top-flight.

Back AC Milan to qualify at 12/5 with LiveScore Bet