Plymouth vs Leeds Prediction: Goal-fest expected at Home Park

Liam Flin

Spotlight

Daniel Farke and Leeds moved into the automatic play-off places in midweek

- Leeds are on a ten-game unbeaten streak in all competitions
- Plymouth have not lost a league game at home since November
- Recommended bet: Over 4.5 goals

The race for automatic promotion in the Championship is tighter than ever, and Leeds need to ensure they do not slip up when they make the 321-mile journey to take on Plymouth at Home Park on Saturday.

Daniel Farke’s side have capitalised on Southampton’s defeat to Bristol City and now occupy second spot in the league, although both the Saints and fellow promotion rivals Ipswich have games in hand over the Whites.

The Pilgrims have been the league’s entertainers this season but they have struggled whenever coming up against Leeds, failing to win any of the previous three meetings in all competitions this campaign.

Team news

Ian Foster should have a fully fit squad for Saturday’s match, with influential forward Morgan Whittaker likely to start after his impressive performance in the draw with Coventry on Wednesday.

However there will be one enforced absentee in the form of midfielder Darko Gyabi, as he is on loan at the club from Leeds and isn’t permitted to face his parent club.

The Whites will still be without long-term absentee Stuart Dallas, while Pascal Struijk is also unavailable as he continues to recover from a groin injury.

The stats

Each of the last seven games at Home Park has produced a minimum of four goals

There have been 103 league goals scored in games involving Plymouth; only Crewe and Notts County have seen more across the top four leagues in English Football.

The Pilgrims have kept just eight clean sheets across their 36 matches in all competitions.

Leeds are unbeaten in 2024, winning nine of their ten games this calendar year.

The Whites have kept clean sheets in four of their five away matches this year, only failing to do so in the FA Cup at Plymouth.

Prediction

This is the fourth meeting between these two sides this season, with ten goals being scored across the three previous encounters.

Another goalfest could be on the cards again on Saturday, particularly given how Home Park has treated fans in recent weeks.

The last seven games in Plymouth have seen at least four strikes find the back of the net, as well as two consecutive 3-3 draws with Birmingham and Watford either side of the New Year.

The Pilgrims would likely be higher up the table had their defence been more resolute this season, with only Blackburn and bottom side Rotherham conceding more goals in the league than Plymouth’s 52.

Leeds overcame their weekend opponents in their FA Cup replay win last week - 4-1 after extra time - and a total of 38 shots were taken over the course of the 120 minutes.

It is likely that five of the top 11 goalscorers - Plymouth’s Whittaker and Ryan Hardie and Leeds’ Joel Piroe, Crysencio Summerville and Dan James - could be in action on Saturday, and if they have their shooting boots on, then this could be a joy for neutrals.

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