Nottingham Forest vs Leeds predictions: Solid home form points to narrow Forest win

- Four of Nottingham Forest's five Premier League wins have come at home 
- Leeds have lost six of their last eight away games in the Premier League 
- Recommended bet: Nottingham Forest to win

Nottingham Forest's EFL Cup dream was ruthlessly extinguished by Manchester United, who beat them 5-0 on aggregate in the semi-finals, but Steve Cooper's men have still made a bright start to 2023 in the Premier League.

A 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea was followed by victories away to Southampton and at home to Leicester and Forest then picked up another valuable point at Bournemouth last time out.

Forest have done most of their best work at the City Ground on their return to the top flight and they will be targeting a fifth home win of the campaign when they host Leeds on Sunday.

The visitors have scored eight goals in their last two FA Cup ties against Cardiff and Accrington but they look far less convincing against Premier League opponents and are three points behind Forest, having taken just three points from their last six league matches.

Team news

Forest could hand a debut to on-loan Paris St-Germain goalkeeper Keylor Navas as Dean Henderson is part of a lengthy injury list that includes Morgan Gibbs-White, Giulian Biancone, Cheikhou Kouyate, Omar Richards, Moussa Niakhate and Taiwo Awoniyi.

Ryan Yates is sidelined by illness but Jonjo Shelvey, signed from Newcastle earlier this week, and fellow new signing Andre Ayew are pushing for starts.

Leeds will be without top scorer Rodrigo until April and defender Robin Koch is suspended. 

Midfielder Tyler Adams has been passed fit and his fellow USA international Weston McKennie should be available after joining on loan from Juventus.

The stats

Nottingham Forest have claimed four of their five Premier League wins at the City Ground this season and 13 of their 16 league goals have been scored at home.

Four of Forest's five league victories have been by a 1-0 scoreline with the exception being a 2-0 win over Leicester in their last home match.

Leeds have had two goalless draws in their last four Premier League matches but their games this season are still producing an average of 3.11 goals.

Leeds have lost six of their last eight away games in the league. 

Their only win in that time came against Liverpool at Anfield, where Crysencio Summerville's 89th-minute goal sealed a 2-1 success.

Prediction

There is little between these teams in the Premier League table, with Forest three points ahead of Leeds having played a game more, and a tight contest looks likely at the City Ground.

Home advantage could prove decisive as Forest have beaten West Ham, Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Leicester to nil on their own patch this season and Leeds have struggled on the road.

The visitors are missing Rodrigo, who has contributed 10 of their 26 league goals this term, and his absence enhances the home side's chances of keeping another clean sheet.

Forest are far from prolific but Brennan Johnson scored twice in their last home game, a 2-0 win over Leicester, and the arrival of Newcastle loanee Chris Wood provides a focal point to their attacking unit.

They should create chances against a Leeds defence who have been leaky under Marcelo Bielsa and Jesse Marsch and Forest are worth a chance to claim another crucial victory in their bid to retain their top-flight status. 

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