- Newcastle have won eight of their last nine home games
- Milan have won only one of their last eight Champions League matches 
- They have failed to score in four of their last five away games in the competition
- Recommended bet: Under 2.5 goals

St James' Park will host a winner-takes-all clash on Wednesday night, with Newcastle and AC Milan set to battle it out for third place in their Champions League group, with both sides still holding ambitions of pinching second should they win and PSG lose to Borussia Dortmund. 

Milan were semi-finalists in the Champions League last season yet find themselves on the brink of elimination from all European competition this time around, with a win needed on Tyneside if they are to pinch third place in Group F, due to having a worse goal difference than their hosts, and progress to the Europa League knockout stage. 

While a draw would do for Newcastle, they would love their Champions League journey to continue and will be hopeful of a win and a favour from Dortmund. 

Team news

Newcastle’s Sven Botman is nearing a return, but this match comes too soon for the Dutchman meaning he continues to miss out alongside Dan Burn, Nick Pope, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, Matt Targett, Elliot Anderson, Jacob Murphy and former Rossoneri midfielder Sandro Tonali.

Milan also have their fair share of injuries, with Malick Thiaw, Mattia Caldara, Marco Pellegrino, Marco Sportiello, Noah Okafor, Pierre Kalulu and Simon Kjaer all expected to miss out. Starman Rafael Leao has been absent since November but played in a friendly recently and could make a welcome return against Newcastle.

The stats

Newcastle have won eight of their last nine home games.

Both teams have scored in five of Milan’s last six matches.

The Magpies have kept a clean sheet in six of their last nine games at St James' Park.

Milan have failed to win any of their last four away matches, conceding ten goals in that run.

Just one of Newcastle’s five group games has gone over 2.5 goals.

The Rossoneri have won only one of their last eight Champions League matches and have failed to score in four of their last five away games in the competition.

Prediction

Newcastle’s home record is exceptional and they have won eight of their last nine matches at St James’ Park, beating Manchester City, PSG, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United in that run, suggesting they may be too strong for Milan on Wednesday. 

The Rossoneri have failed to win any of their last three away matches, drawing with bottom-half Serie A side Lecce and throwing away a point in the 95th minute at Atalanta in that run, and they could fall victim to the cauldron-like atmosphere on Tyneside. 

However, with so much riding on the match, a cagey affair could unfold and goals could be at a premium. 

Only one of Newcastle’s five group games have gone over 2.5 goals and they have failed to score more than once in their last four matches. 

While Milan do have a tendency to be involved in high-scoring matches, with three of their last four going over 3.5 goals, the net-bulging action seems to be reserved for domestic games. 

They have failed to score in four of their last five Champions League away matches and look unlikely to add to the goals total on Wednesday. 

The reverse fixture finished 0-0, despite the sides taking a combined 31 shots, and another low-scoring encounter should be expected. 

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