US Open women's final predictions: Swiatek to outlast Jabeur

The cream has risen to the top at this year’s US Open with Polish world No1 Iga Swiatek and Tunisian fifth seed Ons Jabeur the two players competing for the final piece of Grand Slam silverware of the season. 

Swiatek claimed her second Grand Slam title of her career at the French Open in June while Jabeur went mighty close to celebrating her maiden Major success when losing in three sets to Elena Rybakina in the Wimbledon final in July. 

Swiatek and Jabeur are the only women to have made two Grand Slam finals this season and they also sit first and second in the leaderboard for the Race to the WTA Finals. 

It is, therefore, a fitting end to what has been a truly excellent campaign and although Swiatek’s status will ensure she is considered favourite, Jabeur is as determined as anyone on the WTA Tour and should not be totally dismissed in her bid to break new ground. 

Jabeur looks set for a fast start

Jabeur had been considered the underdog for her semi-final showdown with the all-conquering Caroline Garcia but the Tunisian had other ideas and served up her most devastating performance of the tournament, winning 6-1 6-3. 

Garcia had won three titles this year and was on a 13-game winning streak but was not given any time to settle by Jabeur, who served eight aces and did not face a single break point. 

And given this is not uncharted territory for Jabeur, with her having been involved in the Wimbledon final, she could make another fast start against Swiatek. 

The 28-year-old has won five of her six assignments in New York in straight sets while Swiatek has needed three sets in two of her last three matches. 

The Pole was forced to come from behind against fourth-round opponent Jule Niemeier and semi-final challenger Aryna Sabalenka, losing the opening sets 6-2 and 6-3 respectively. 

If Jabeur is going to be competitive, she is aware she has to land the first blow and there is nothing in her previous meetings with Swiatek to suggest she is going to be completely outclassed. 

Lengthy battle could be in store

This is set to be the fifth competitive meeting between this pair and the opening four encounters have been shared with two wins apiece. 

Swiatek won the only meeting to take place this year in the Rome final, easing to a 6-2 6-2 success, but clay is her surface and there is less between the two on a pacier hard court. 

Jabeur took both showdowns in 2021, winning 6-3 6-3 in Cincinnati and prevailing in three sets at Wimbledon, which highlights exactly what she is capable of. 

Given two of their four meetings have gone the distance and both appear to be operating close to the peak of their powers, this has the makings of another marathon contest. 

Winning mentality gives Swiatek the edge

Jabeur may strike first but Swiatek has a positive mentality and is no stranger to winning from behind. 

The Polish star has already come from a set down twice at Flushing Meadows this year and a record of just four defeats in her last 51 matches illustrates how determined she is. 

There does not appear to be much to separate this pair at present and three sets looks likely, but 21-year-old Swiatek has already won six titles this year and would have to hold the edge were it to go to a final-set decider.