England vs Samoa predictions: England to punish Samoa again in semi

- England cruised past Samoa in their opening contest of the tournament 
- England have never lost to Samoa in a competitive Test 
- Recommended bet: England -8.5 handicap

Shaun Wane's England are on the verge of the Rugby League World Cup final and should have too much for fellow Pool A side Samoa in Saturday's semi-final.

Samoa finished second to England in Pool A after losing to Wane's men 60-6 in the opening match of the tournament at St James' Park.

Matt Parish's side responded well, beating France and Greece to earn their spot in the final four of a World Cup for the first time.

Their 20-18 victory over rivals Tonga proves they have grown in confidence every week, but they will need to produce their very best to even stand a chance of overcoming the hosts, who are on course to make the final.

Team news

Wane has made just one change to his 19-man squad for Saturday's semi-final, with Canterbury Bulldogs' Luke Thompson replacing St Helens prop Matty Lees.

The former Wigan Warriors coach has kept things as familiar as possible after last week's 46-6 success over Papua New Guinea. 

While Thompson will hope to make an impact, Saturday's contest could be a landmark occasion for Chris Hill.

He will go second on the all-time Rugby League World Cup appearances list as he prepares to play in his 16th match.

Samoa were sweating on the availability of captain Junior Paulo, but his one-match ban for striking in a tackle with Tonga's David Fifita was overturned at an independent judiciary tribunal.

Parish has still been forced into one change, with hooker Danny Levi flying home for a family emergency, meaning Spencer Leniu returns to the squad.

The stats

England and Samoa will meet for the second time in this World Cup, and Wane's men will have fond memories of that early 60-6 contest.

England have won all of their previous four Tests against their semi-final opponents, outscoring them 98-20 across the last two meetings.

Wane's side have won eight of their previous nine games at the men's World Cup, while Samoa are enjoying their best run for some time.

Parish's troops have won their last three Tests overall, which is their joint longest winning run since a 15-game streak in the 1990s.

Predictions

Nerves are likely to play their part at Arsenal's Emirates Stadium, with both teams just one match away from a Rugby League World Cup final appearance.

Old Trafford awaits the winner, but England's squad will take so much confidence from the first meeting between the two sides.

Samoa should be treating the game as a free hit, with very few observers expecting them to reach the final.

All the evidence and stats suggest Samoa have improved each week, but England's 60-point victory in the pool is simply too hard to ignore.

Even if Samoa make more of a contest of it this time around, England should cover the -8.5 handicap, available at 10/11 with LiveScore Bet and reach their second consecutive final.