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England vs Italy predictions: Three Lions can avoid the Blues
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Jack Ogalbe
A victory for Gareth Southgate's England against Italy would see them qualify for Euro 2024
A victory for Gareth Southgate's England against Italy would see them qualify for Euro 2024

- England are unbeaten in their last seven games in all competitions 
- Italy sit second in Group C, three points behind the Three Lions 
- Recommended bet: England to win and both teams to score

England were criticised on the back of Friday's tepid 1-0 friendly win over Australia, but are sure to make plenty of changes for their Euro 2024 qualifier against Italy on Tuesday.

The Three Lions opened their Group C campaign with March's 2-1 win over the Azzurri in Naples and a win this time around would secure qualification from the pool.

Italy have appointed a new manager since their early defeat, with Luciano Spalletti now in charge. In August, he replaced the man who guided the Italians to victory over England in the Euro 2020 final, Roberto Mancini, and they are unbeaten in three games under the former Napoli boss.

They were most recently seen beating Malta 4-0 on Saturday, but this is by far their toughest test since Spalletti's appointment and the reigning European champions could come unstuck at Wembley.

Team news

England will definitely be without Luke Shaw (muscular), who was sent-off in March's match-up, Bukayo Saka and Ben Chilwell (both hamstring). Shaw and Chilwell's absence will likely see Kieran Trippier selected at left-back.

Gareth Southgate is expected to make wholesale changes, with Trent Alexander-Arnold the most likely player to be retained from the starting XI against Australia.

The Liverpool man interchanged between right-back and central midfield on Friday, but could be deployed in a more rigid engine room role alongside Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham. 

Italy will be without attackers Federico Chiesa (muscle), Ciro Immobile (biceps) and Mateo Retegui (knee).

Giacomo Bonaventura, 34, who became the oldest player to score his first Italy goal when he opened the scoring against Malta, could drop out. Davide Frattesi, who also scored in Bari, could come in.

The stats

England have taken 13 from the 15 points available in Group C and have the pool's top scorer in Harry Kane, who has netted five times.

Saka, who will miss Tuesday's game, is second with four, while Frattesi is Italy's top scorer with three goals, while Berardi and Retegui have both netted twice.

Both Kane and Retegui scored in Naples after Rice had opened the scoring and that was England's first win over the Italians since a 2-1 friendly success in August 2012.

A repeat of that result would end Italy's remarkable away record in Euros qualifiers, with them unbeaten in 22 on the road in continental qualifying.


Luciano Spalletti could taste defeat for the first time as Italy manager
Luciano Spalletti could taste defeat for the first time as Italy manager

Italy's Nations League exploits mean they are assured of at least a play-off spot and, with a home match against North Macedonia and a clash with Ukraine on neutral territory in Leverkusen, will expect to qualify.

The Azzurri may, therefore, see Tuesday's game as a free hit, but while they shone against Malta, that was without the likes of Chiesa, Immobile and Retegui and they look rather threadbare in attack.

In contrast, England are well-rested after Southgate benched most of his stars against the Socceroos. 

Even so, the Three Lions are far from watertight, conceding against both Ukraine and Scotland before keeping that clean sheet against Australia.

Despite their injury issues, Italy will still carry a threat, with Berardi fresh from scoring a brace against Malta, but the Three Lions should have too much and may be out for revenge on the back of their Euro 2020 final defeat.

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