Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz predictions: Spaniard can stay on course for successful title defence
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- Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five meetings with Daniil Medvedev
- Alcaraz has dropped at least a set in his last three Wimbledon victories
- Recommended bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1
This is a repeat of last season’s Wimbledon semi-final, in which Carlos Alcaraz blew Daniil Medvedev away in a 6-3 6-3 6-3 victory before going on to take the title at Novak Djokovic’s expense.
The defending champion will be hoping to frank that form and make another All England Club final but Medvedev, fresh from a five-set success in the quarter-final against world number one Jannik Sinner, will be eyeing some revenge.
Alcaraz has not been wholly convincing in his title defence, dropping sets in his last three tournament victories over Frances Tiafoe, Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul, but he has dominated his recent rivalry with Medvedev.
That said, Medvedev had struggled in past exchanges with Sinner too, but found a way to prevail in Tuesday’s quarter-final epic.
Prior to that five-set thriller with the Italian, Medvedev had dropped only two sets in his three completed matches — fourth-round rival Grigor Dimitrov was forced to retire when trailing 5-3 in the opening set.
That makes this an intriguing clash which should deliver on the hype, although Alcaraz has been able to produce his best stuff under pressure and still looks a difficult man to dethrone.
The stats
Alcaraz has won four of his last five meetings with Medvedev, although the Russian has won two of their three Grand Slam encounters.
Five of the six meetings between this pair have been settled in straight sets, the only exception being Medvedev’s 3-1 win in the US Open semi-final last season.
Alcaraz has dropped a set in his last three Wimbledon wins — his last two victories over Humbert and Paul ended 3-1 — while Medvedev has lost a set in three of his last four completed matches at the All England Club.
Alcaraz has lost only three of his last 29 matches while he has lost only one of his last 19 grass-court encounters.
Three-time Grand Slam champion Alcaraz is featuring in his sixth major semi-final and is eyeing his fourth final.
Medvedev won his sole Grand Slam title at the 2021 US Open but he is also a five-time Grand Slam runner-up.
Prediction
Alcaraz eased past Medvedev in straight sets in the semi-final of Wimbledon last season and, although the Russian can add stiffer resistance, the same outcome looks likely.
It has not always been vintage Alcaraz at this year’s Wimbledon Championships but he is growing to the task and has been able to find his best tennis under the maximum of pressure.
The Spaniard has dropped sets in his last three matches and he was pushed especially hard in round three by Tiafoe, having trailed by two sets to one.
Alcaraz also fell behind in his quarter-final victory over Paul, having lost the opening set 7-5, but he soon clicked into gear and it will be difficult for Medvedev to master him.
The Russian is serving superbly and he did extremely well to edge past world number one Sinner in a five-set quarter-final, especially given the Italian levelled the scores up with a convincing 6-2 win in the fourth set.
However, Alcaraz has won four of their last five meetings and his game tends to shape up well against Medvedev, so expect the Spaniard to come up with the goods.
