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AC Milan vs Inter Milan predictions: Inter can gain the upper hand in derby duel
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Daniel Childs
Inter Milan boss Simone Inzaghi has seen his side win on their last five outings
Inter Milan boss Simone Inzaghi has seen his side win on their last five outings

- Inter have won their last five matches in all competitions
- Milan have not scored more than two goals in any of their last 15 home fixtures 
- Recommended bet: Inter to win

Serie A giants AC and Inter Milan are fierce domestic rivals but they have not competed against each other on the Champions League stage since 2005 when the Rossoneri came through their quarter-final tie.

AC Milan's route to the final four featured a reasonably comfortable 1-0 aggregate success over Tottenham and a much more nerve-shredding 2-1 aggregate success over Napoli.

Inter had to come through a tough group stage, finishing three points ahead of Barcelona, who they defeated 1-0 at the San Siro.

And Simone Inzaghi's side have picked off a couple of Portuguese giants in the knockouts, securing aggregate victories of 1-0 and 5-3 over Porto and Benfica.

Team news

Veteran striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic (calf) has not featured since the end of March and faces a race against time to play again this season.

And there are major doubts over the fitness of Rafael Leao, who lasted for just 10 minutes of Saturday's 2-0 success at home to Lazio before sustaining an apparent muscle injury.

Inter are going to have to manage without defenders Milan Skriniar (back) and Robin Gosens (shoulder).

Left-back Dalbert (knee) is a long-term absentee and will not be available until next season.

The stats

Stefano Pioli's AC Milan have the 'home' advantage on Wednesday
Stefano Pioli's AC Milan have the 'home' advantage on Wednesday

Milan will be the 'home' side for the first leg, although it is debatable whether that will be much of an advantage, given that the San Siro is shared by both clubs.

There has not been much evidence of home advantage in Serie A fixtures between the teams over the last 30 years, with 60 matches generating 24 home wins, 21 away wins and 15 draws.

The Rossoneri warmed up for the game with a 2-0 success at home to Lazio on Saturday and are unbeaten in their last nine games.

However, they will be up against a confident Inter, who have registered five successive victories.


Inter appear to be playing as well as they have all season and can secure a first leg advantage over Milan in their Champions League semi-final.

Inzaghi's side started the season with title aspirations but it soon became clear that they would struggle to last the pace set by Napoli.

However, they have reached the Coppa Italia final as well as the Champions League's final four.

Inter are the second-highest scorers in Serie A and two of their strikers, Lautaro Martinez and Chelsea loanee Romelu Lukaku, are playing well.

Martinez has notched four goals in his last two starts – taking his Serie A tally to 19 – while Lukaku has come to life with three goals in his last three league appearances.

Inter should carry a cutting edge and that may be vital in a hotly-contested match where there are likely to be as many yellow cards as clear-cut chances.

AC Milan look less potent in attack and their top scorer, Leao, appears set to miss out through injury.

The Rossoneri rode their luck when registering a 2-1 aggregate success over Napoli in the quarter-finals (the total shot count was 39 to 18 against them), but their fortune may be about to run out.

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