Wales vs Finland predictions: Dragons to edge into play-off final

- Wales went unbeaten in their final six matches of 2023
- The Dragons have only lost one of their last 15 home Euro qualifiers
- Recommended bet: Wales to win and under 2.5 goals

Wales and Finland will meet in their European Championship qualifying play-off semi-final at the Cardiff City Stadium on Thursday with the winner moving a step closer to reaching this summer's tournament, while the dream will be over for the loser.

After going unbeaten in their final six games of 2023, Wales will be hoping to come into this match with momentum on their side despite finishing behind Turkey and Croatia in their qualifying group.

Finland were pipped to automatic qualification by Denmark and Slovenia and will head to the Welsh capital having lost three of their last five games.

The winner of Thursday's tie will host either Poland or Estonia for a place at Euro 2024 on March 26.

Team news

Wales head coach Rob Page has included captain Aaron Ramsey in his squad despite the midfielder making only three brief substitute appearances for his club side, Cardiff, since suffering a knee injury in September.

Winger Wes Burns is a major doubt with a hamstring injury, while defenders Ben Cabango and Joe Low have withdrawn from the squad due to fitness issues.

Finland will be without versatile midfielder Robert Taylor, who has been sidelined through injury, while forward Marcus Forss is a doubt due to a leg issue.

The stats

Wales finished third in qualifying Group D on 12 points, four off second-placed Croatia and five behind group winners Turkey.

The Dragons have beaten Croatia and drawn with Turkey in their last two home fixtures and have lost only one of their previous 15 home European Championship qualifiers, a run that dates back to 2011.

Finland finished four points behind both Denmark and Slovenia in qualifying Group F and lost three of their final five qualifiers.

The Eagle-owls have failed to win any of their last four meetings with Wales (D2, L2), with their last success over their opponents on Thursday coming in a World Cup qualifier in 2009.

Seven of the last 10 clashes between these two sides have yielded under 2.5 goals.

Prediction

Wales have a strong record when it comes to home European Championship qualifiers and the support at the Cardiff City Stadium on Thursday cannot be underestimated.

The Dragons also have experience of this type of occasion, having come through home play-offs against Austria and Ukraine to reach the 2022 World Cup.

Both of those matches were tight affairs and it could be a similar story against Finland, especially as 10 of Wales' last 14 matches have featured fewer than three goals.

Finland failed to score against Denmark and Slovenia over the autumn and are likely to try and keep things tight.  Wales should eventually break Markku Kanerva's side down but this is expected to be a tense, nervy night all round.

Back Wales to win and under 2.5 goals at 21/10 with LiveScore Bet

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