Queensland Reds vs British & Irish Lions predictions: Underpowered hosts unlikely to be blown away
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Jack Ogalbe
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Finn Russell is the only British & Irish Lions starter to keep his place from the win over Western Force
Finn Russell is the only British & Irish Lions starter to keep his place from the win over Western Force

- The Lions beat the Reds 22-12 in 2013
- The Reds finished fifth in Super Rugby Pacific before bowing out in the play-offs

- Recommended bet: Queensland Reds +25.5

After the frustration of their opening 28-24 defeat to Argentina, the British & Irish Lions hit back by beating Western Force 54-7 in their first game on Australian soil last Saturday.

Everything is building towards the first Test against the Wallabies on July 19 in Brisbane and the Lions get an early run-out at that match's venue, Suncorp Stadium, when they face Queensland Reds on Wednesday.

Australia's fixture against Fiji on Sunday means the Reds are without some of the key players who helped them reach the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific play-offs.

However, facing the Lions is a once-in-a-career opportunity and they are sure to push Andy Farrell's tourists, who look strong on paper but are still gelling, with Wednesday the first time several of their players will have featured together.

Team news

Experienced full-back Jock Campbell captains the Reds, reprising the role he took against touring sides from Wales and Tonga last year.

Despite missing six players who are away with the Australia squad, the Queenslanders are boosted by Aidan Ross, who packs down at loosehead prop after recently signing from fellow Super Rugby outfit, the Chiefs, having represented the Kiwi outfit in that competition's final.

The Lions have made 14 changes from the team that beat the Force, with fly-half Finn Russell the only player retained.

His half-back partner is Jamison Gibson-Park, who is one of three Irish internationals set for their Lions debut, with full-back Hugo Keenan in the team and lock James Ryan on the bench.

Captain Maro Itoje returns to lead the side alongside fellow Englishman Ollie Chessum in the second row.

The stats

Wednesday's venue, Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, will host the first Lions Test against Australia on July 19.

The Lions beat the Reds 22-12 at the ground in 2013, before going on to edge the first Test with the Wallabies at Suncorp 23-21.

In 2001, the Lions beat the Reds 42-8 in Brisbane, albeit at Ballymore, and then defeated Australia 29-13 across town at The Gabba.

Prediction

Reds boss Les Kiss will become Australia coach next year
Reds boss Les Kiss will become Australia coach next year

The Reds come in fresh, having not played since June 6 when they lost to eventual champions the Crusaders in Super Rugby's Qualifying Finals.

They finished fifth in the regular season standings – the second best of the Australian sides behind the Brumbies, who the Lions play on July 9, and came home third before going out to the Chiefs in the semi-finals.

Farrell's decision to pair Gibson-Park and Russell, especially given the Scot played at the weekend, hints that he sees this as a tough enough game to try out his potential half-back combination for the first Test.

The coach is also renewing his experiment from the defeat to Argentina by picking two natural opensides in Ben Curry and Jac Morgan in the back row.

However, while in Dublin, they had another 'fetcher' in Ben Earl between them, Jack Conan packs down as a more traditional ball-carrying number eight.

Farrell is clearly dipping his toe into the water with some of his selections and will want to see how they go against a decent Reds team, albeit one lacking six Australia players, including Wallabies captain Harry Wilson and key back row Fraser McReight.

They will still be strong, though, and coach Les Kiss, who has been named as Joe Schmidt's successor for when the Kiwi steps down in mid-2026, meaning he will lead his team into a home World Cup in 2027, will have high expectations.

Like Schmidt, Kiss likes to focus on the details and is sure to have identified areas where the Reds can target the tourists.

Another 10-point defeat like 12 years ago, looks unlikely, but the handicap is a high mark, and the Reds can get within 25 points.

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