Oxford vs Peterborough predictions: U's to make home advantage count

- Oxford have lost just one of their last eight in the league
- Peterborough have lost two of their last three on the road to nil
- Recommended bet: Oxford to win to nil

After taking advantage of Lincoln and Blackpool’s slip-ups on the final day, Oxford find themselves in a play-off semi-final for the first time since 2021.

However, they face a tricky test against Peterborough, who famously lost their semi-final on penalties to Sheffield Wednesday last season, having won the first leg 4-0.

Both sides won their home head-to-heads in comfortable fashion in the regular season, with Posh claiming a 3-0 win at London Road in December, before the U’s romped to a 5-0 thumping last month.

Team news

There are no fresh injury concerns for Des Buckingham’s home side and so few changes are expected to the starting XI that claimed the crucial 2-1 victory at Exeter on the final day, which ultimately secured their play-off qualification.

Top scorer Mark Harris is likely to lead the line, while Cameron Brannagan – who has 21 goal contributions to his name in League One this season, including nine assists – should keep his place in midfield.

Darren Ferguson has an almost fully fit Posh squad available for this first leg, with long-term absentee Jeando Fuchs the only player expected to miss out.

However, he may feel the need to tinker with the side that played out a thrilling 3-3 draw with Bolton last time out.

Jonson Clarke-Harris could return up front to partner Malik Mothersille – who grabbed a brace against the Trotters – while James Dornelly could be favoured ahead of Jadel Katongo at right back.

The stats

Peterborough have conceded 33 goals on the road this season, more than any other top six side in League One.

Oxford have lost just one of their last five at the Kassam Stadium, while Posh have lost two of their last three on the road, both of them to nil.

The U’s have kept clean sheets in four of their last six home meetings with Peterborough in all competitions.

Prediction

Oxford have lost just two of their last 10 at the Kassam Stadium – winning two of their last four to nil – while, having put five past Peterborough in April, they will have plenty of confidence in claiming another shutout victory on Saturday.

The U’s have conceded just 24 league goals at the Kassam Stadium this season, a tally that betters each of their play-off rivals and this defensive solidity could prove pivotal in gaining the advantage in this tie.

With the Posh failing to score in two of their last three on the road, it could be a case of damage limitation for Ferguson’s men and, after conceding five in the away leg of last season's play-off semi-final, the wounds of old may still stick in the minds of the visitors.

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