- Alcaraz has won 20 of 21 matches on clay this season
- Alcaraz has dropped one set in his last five meetings with Musetti
- Recommended bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-0 (set betting)

Carlos Alcaraz claimed what most believe will be the first of many French Open titles in last year's Roland Garros final, and the brilliant Spaniard is just two wins away from successfully defending his crown.

A winner in Monte Carlo and Rome already this year, Alcaraz is living up to his status as heir to Rafael Nadal's clay-court crown, although he hasn't bossed this year's Paris matches with the authority of the legendary Mallorcan.

After a first-round win over Giulio Zeppieri, Alcaraz was made to go to four sets in wins over Fabian Maroszan, Damir Dzumhur and Ben Shelton, but he looked right back to top form in his quarter-final dismissal of American Tommy Paul.

His semi-final opponent, Lorenzo Musetti, has had an admirably consistent run this season, reaching the Monte Carlo final, where he lost to Alcaraz, while he also made the last four in Madrid and then in Rome, where Alcaraz again ended his challenge.

The stats

Alcaraz has dominated recent meetings with Musetti, winning their last five clashes after the Italian defeated him on Hamburg clay in 2022.

Four of their five most recent meetings have been settled in straight sets. Alcaraz has won all but one of 12 sets in that period and 10 of them for the loss of no more than three games.

The pair have clashed on clay more than any other surface and Alcaraz leads 3-1. While the first clash went Musetti's way, Alcaraz gained revenge in their second meeting – at the 2023 French Open – when he won 6-3 6-2 6-2 in what is their only Grand Slam meeting to date.

One of the Spaniard's greatest strengths is his ability as a returner and he leads the ATP World Tour in return-game winning percentage on this surface, breaking serve 39.4% of the time.

Prediction

The stats do a good job of indicating which way this semi-final contest will go and, while it's true that Musetti is an improved performer, a French Open meeting with Alcaraz represents a big mental test for the Italian.

While Musetti won the first set of their Monte Carlo Masters final clash, Alcaraz roared back to win the next two for the loss of just one game and he should shift through the gears with a French Open final place on the line.

Alcaraz can sometimes suffer from lapses in concentration, which helps to explain why he has dropped sets in three of his five French Open matches, but he was brilliant against an injury-compromised Paul in the quarter-finals. 

Musetti will be fitter than the American, but he wasn't overly impressive in his quarter-final win over Frances Tiafoe, who kept in touch for the majority of the match before he dropped his level briefly, allowing the Italian to break at 6-2 4-6 5-5 in the third.

While not disgraced in his first Grand Slam semi-final at Wimbledon last year, Musetti still lost in straight sets against Novak Djokovic and a French Open meeting with Alcaraz is a similarly daunting prospect.

Back Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-0 (set betting) at LiveScore Bet.