- Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard go head to head again
- The big rivals have been the one-two in each of the past four years
- Recommended bets:
- 1 Pogacar/2 Vingegaard straight forecast
- Wout van Aert Points Classification winner

The Tour de France has a long history of being dominated by a single rider for a number of years, or by a fierce rivalry, and the theme has continued in the 2020s.

When Tadej Pogacar won his first title in 2020 aged just 21, he seemed set to rule alone for most of the decade. Yet Jonas Vingegaard, just two years his senior, emerged as a serious challenger the following year, finishing runner-up to Pogacar, and then relegated the Slovenian to second place in 2022 and 2023.

Last year Pogacar regained top spot to make the score 3-2 in his favour, with Vingegaard second again, in an exceptional campaign that brought him the triple crown of Tour, Giro d’Italia and world championships road race.

Big two in prime position again

The scary aspect — for their rivals — is that the dominance of the big two shows no sign of diminishing, and there is no reason why it should, given that both riders are now in the prime years of their late 20s.

Pogacar was brilliant again in the one-day classics, winning two of the four spring monuments (Tour of Flanders and Liege-Bastogne-Liege) and being placed in the other two, and he had a great Tour prep with overall victory in the Criterium du Dauphine.

Vingegaard was second in the Dauphine, 59 seconds behind, after a much more low-key build-up.

The Dane should improve, but Pogacar is likely to step up too and the betting reflects what seems a sizeable gap in the reigning champion’s favour.

Best of the rest?

Remco Evenepoel, third last year and aged 25, is best of the rest in the overall betting but it is worth bearing in mind that the next-best behind Pogacar and Vingegaard from the previous edition has yet to repeat that placing the next year.

Evenepoel is a huge talent and should also improve from the Dauphine, where he was fourth, but it is difficult to cope with the pressure and exertion of keeping up with the big two repeatedly.

That might make it worth looking for a new name to stand on the final podium. Florian Lipowitz, on the up even before his Dauphine third, is an option.

One who could go well at much bigger odds is Carlos Rodriguez, who was ninth in the Dauphine and could be the leading overall contender from Ineos Grenadiers. He has finished in the top 10 in all four Grand Tours he has contested.

Van Aert looks good in green

The route of the final week looks extremely tough, which will increase the difficulty for leading green jersey contenders Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier to make it all the way to Paris.

Brilliant all-rounder Wout van Aert looks a better bet at 13/2 with LiveScore Bet. He took the green jersey in 2022 and could do it again with consistent high finishes.

It looks harder for a pure sprinter to dominate this year, with only five obvious sprint stages.

Prediction

Pogacar is the overwhelming favourite, and rightly so. When he is on form, as he has been almost non-stop since the spring of 2024, he is the undisputed world number one.

Vingegaard is a more than worthy opponent but probably needs some level of underperformance from Pogacar to get in front of him.

No-one else comes close to the big two on form, however, and a Pogacar-Vingegaard straight forecast is a sound bet.

Back 1. Tadej Pogacar/2. Jonas Vingegaard in General Classification straight forecast at 9/10 with LiveScore Bet.

Back Wout van Aert in Points Classification at 13/2 with LiveScore Bet.