Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek predictions: Clay-court queen may be dethroned
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- Sabalenka has lost only three of her last 31 matches on the WTA Tour
- Swiatek has dropped at least a set in eight of her last 15 matches
- Recommended bet: Aryna Sabalenka to win
The French Open has been a bit of an Iga Swiatek beneficiary in recent times, with the Polish phenomenon taking the title in four of the last five years and she is bidding to make it four wins on the spin in Paris this season.
But, despite her clay-court dominance, Swiatek arrived at Roland Garros relatively under the radar as she still seeks her first piece of silverware in 2025.
It has been a stop-start campaign for the 24-year-old, which is the reason for her slipping down to fifth in the WTA Tour rankings, and in world number one Aryna Sabalenka she faces an imperious semi-final rival.
Sabalenka has won three titles this season, including one of the big clay-court events in Madrid last month, and she has eased to five straight-set wins in the French capital.
Swiatek has been made to work a little bit harder to make the final four and she needed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in her fourth-round encounter with Elena Rybakina, having lost the first set 6-1 before finding herself a break down in the second.
This is the true definition of a titanic tussle and, while Swiatek has had the upper hand in their personal series, especially on clay, Sabalenka is oozing confidence and may be able to reverse roles in this last-four rumble.
The stats
Swiatek leads her head-to-head series with Sabalenka 8-4 and has won five of their six clay-court rivalries.
However, this season Sabalenka’s record reads 34 wins and just six losses, while Swiatek’s stands at 27 wins and nine defeats.
Sabalenka has made the semi-final of a Grand Slam in nine of her last 10 attempts and she is bidding to make her maiden French Open final.
Swiatek has dropped at least a set in eight of her last 15 matches, although only five of the 12 previous meetings between this pair have gone the distance.
World number one Sabalenka has lost only three of her last 31 matches on the WTA Tour.
Swiatek’s French Open record reads 40 wins and only two defeats.
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Prediction
Opposing Swiatek on her favourite surface at her beloved French Open is never easy to recommend, but world number one Sabalenka may finally be ready to dethrone her rival in Paris.
Swiatek’s season has been one blighted by inconsistencies and it is rare that we get to this stage in a campaign when she is yet to secure a single piece of silverware.
In her three clay-court tournaments prior to the French Open, Swiatek suffered shock defeats to Jelena Ostapenko, Coco Gauff and Danielle Collins and she is fortunate to still be in with a shot of the title at Roland Garros.
That is because Swiatek trailed Rybakina 6-1 2-0 in her fourth-round clash and another slow start against Sabalenka is likely to be punished.
The world number one is full of confidence, having recorded five routine 2-0 wins at the French Open, and the sheer power and pace she possesses may be too much for Swiatek to handle on this occasion.
