Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz predictions: Reigning champion should have enough to retain slow-court crown
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- The finalists’ stats are remarkably similar. Both turned professional in 2018, both have attained the world number one ranking and both have won 19 titles including Grand Slam triumphs. But Alcaraz leads their personal series 8-4
- Both players have never lost a Grand Slam singles final so something has to give on this occasion. Sinner has won all three major finals he has contested, while Alcaraz is four from four.
- Recommended bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win
This year’s French Open has seen the top two seeds in each of the singles make the finals and so Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will face off in the Roland Garros title match.
That’s not a surprise and it’s a credit to Sinner that he has made back-to-back finals in Rome and Paris since returning from a three-month ban.
However, while the Italian deserves much respect for that effort and the way he has been playing, that lack of court time may well count against him when he takes to the Philippe Chatrier in his bid to win a first French Open singles title.
The stats
Sinner is playing just about as well as expected after his layoff due to a suspension and the Italian top seed has posted three 6-0 sets in his first six singles outings at Roland Garros. Alcaraz has two bagels to his name on the Paris clay this year.
Australian Open champion Sinner has also been conserving energy, which could aid his cause, by virtue of having not dropped a set in the tournament. Alcaraz, meanwhile, has been taking things a little easier and four of his six outings have been four-set affairs.
Sinner has contested only one tiebreak set and that was against legendary veteran Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals. Alcaraz has played one breaker in two of his last three outings.
Prediction
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Sinner is in a relatively good place after returning from his ban but the stats suggest he may still have to find more in his first Roland Garros final if he is to deny defending champion Alcaraz.
The fact that the man from the Dolomites has won all of his six singles matches in straight sets is a positive, but he has beaten only two seeds and one of those, Djokovic, is aged 38. Against the other seed, Andrey Rublev, Sinner was relaxed but not entirely convincing and the world number 15 had chances in that clash.
Some observers will feel that being taken to four sets in four of his six French Open matches is not good enough for a player of Alcaraz’s quality and standing. But the Spaniard is adept at turning on the style when required and that is likely to happen against Sinner.
Alcaraz and his coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will know that Sinner’s lack of court hours is more of a disadvantage when it comes to top-level tennis. And that could well be the reason behind the Murcian’s chilled approach to his title defence.
Alcaraz, who leads Sinner 8-4 in their personal series and 2-1 in their previous clay-court meetings, can step up to the plate and triumph in Paris again and the only surprise is that his price is so generous.
