AC Milan vs Roma predictions: Champions can maintain strong home form

- AC Milan have won seven of their eight home games in Serie A this season 
- Roma were somewhat fortunate to beat Bologna last time out, having gone three games without a win beforehand 
- Recommended bet: AC Milan to win

Napoli suffered their first league loss of the season to Inter Milan last time out, meaning the gap at the Serie A summit has been narrowed.

AC Milan now trail the league leaders by only five points and will be determined to keep the pace at the top when they welcome Roma to the San Siro on Sunday.

Roma have aspirations of their own though and their win over Bologna on the return to action means they are just three points behind fourth-placed Inter Milan, while they are below capital rivals Lazio on goal difference alone.

Team news

Forwards Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Divock Origi and Ante Rebic remain sidelined for Milan, who are also without first-choice goalkeeper Mike Maignan and full-back Alessandro Florenzi.

Georginio Wijnaldum and Andrea Belotti are still doubts for Roma while Rick Karsdorp is out of favour with manager Jose Mourinho.

The stats

Milan have been flying high in Serie A this season with 11 wins recorded from their 16 league fixtures.

They have been especially solid on home soil, winning seven of their eight games at the San Siro and conceding only nine goals in the process.

Rafael Leao is a man in form for Milan with seven goals scored and five assists registered in 15 matches in Italy's top flight this season.

Roma were on a poor run of form before the World Cup break, failing to win four of their five matches beforehand.

Prediction

Milan narrowed the gap at the top of Serie A with their 2-1 win over Salernitana last time out and know all too well there is little margin for error in the race for the Scudetto.

Stefano Pioli led his club to the title last season and edging opponents like Roma will be key in the long run.

Despite a handful of injuries in the attacking department, Milan looked in fine form against Salernitana, managing 10 shots on target in the away contest, and winger Leao looked particularly dangerous.

Leao is on seven goals in the Serie A scoring charts and will be one of Milan's main threats at the San Siro.

The Rossoneri go into this match in fine form with seven wins in their last nine Serie A games, whereas Roma's 1-0 win over Bologna in their first game of 2023 was their first league win in four.

But even that Bologna triumph was settled by a penalty from Lorenzo Pellegrini after six minutes and the game could have swung a different way on another day.

Roma had to make a goal-line clearance in the contest to secure the win and saw only 38% of the ball on their own patch.

The capital outfit have also been pretty wasteful in the final third this season — their expected goals for figure is 32.58, yet they have only scored 19 times in their 16 games.

They cannot afford to be so wasteful against Milan, nor can they allow a team like Milan so much time and space on the ball.

With that in mind, backing Milan to win this contest at 17/20 with LiveScore Bet is well worthy of consideration.